Experts: Sodium-Ion Batteries Poised for Commercial Breakthrough by 2026 as Costs Decline

At the 2025 'Sodium-Ion Battery Industry Chain and Standards Development Forum', experts shared insights into the rapid advancement of sodium-ion battery technology. The forum underscored the transition from demonstration projects to commercial applications, with the next two to three years being pivotal for establishing a foothold in the market. Li Jinghong of the Chinese Academy of Sciences emphasized that sodium-ion batteries should not aim to replace lithium-ion batteries but rather complement them through differentiated competition. Their benefits, such as high power output, cost efficiency, and strong performance in cold climates, make them suitable for hybrid vehicles, uninterruptible power supplies, and energy storage systems.

The sodium-ion battery industry is experiencing a shift from reliance on disruptive pricing models, which prevailed after the 2021 lithium price hikes, to a focus on value creation. The current industry goals include scaling production, decreasing costs, enhancing energy density, and tailoring products to specific market needs. Forum participants agreed that by 2026, sodium-ion batteries are likely to enter large-scale commercial use, revealing their business value more clearly. These batteries are increasingly seen as complementary to lithium-ion batteries, particularly in applications requiring high power and high current, such as commercial vehicles and hybrid systems.

Li Jinghong highlighted vanadium sodium phosphate combined with hard carbon anodes as a promising material system for high-power sodium batteries, citing its structural stability and high voltage capacity. In line with this, CATL, a major player in the battery industry, has integrated sodium-ion batteries into its diversified technology roadmap. In April, CATL launched the first large-scale mass-produced sodium battery, which includes applications for passenger cars and heavy trucks. These batteries boast an energy density of 175 Wh/kg, offering a potential electric range of over 500 km, which could meet the demands of more than 40% of domestic passenger vehicles.

Cost reduction remains a key focus in the sodium-ion battery sector. According to Li Shujun, general manager of Beijing Zhongke Haina Technology Co., the technology has progressed from prototype validation to early commercialization and is poised for significant cost declines. Current sodium-ion batteries achieve an energy density of around 165 Wh/kg with a cycle life of 10,000 cycles at 2°C, operating stably from –40°C to 45°C. Mass production costs are estimated at 0.4–0.5 yuan/Wh, with expectations of further reductions to 0.3 yuan/Wh, aligning with current lithium-iron phosphate battery costs.

Efforts in standardization and policy support are accelerating sodium-ion battery adoption. The China Electronics Standardization Institute has issued two national standards for sodium-ion batteries, with 11 more under development and four international standards led by China. Testing from 44 enterprises has confirmed the strong low-temperature performance and safety of these batteries, positioning them as viable alternatives to lead-acid batteries. Government agencies, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Energy Administration, have labeled sodium-ion batteries as a priority for new energy storage, with policies fostering high-quality development.

The outlook for sodium-ion batteries is promising, with industry representatives acknowledging a turning point in the technology's development. Clear technical pathways, increasing policy support, and defined application scenarios provide strong momentum for sodium-ion batteries. Success will hinge on leveraging their high power, cold climate resilience, safety, and cost benefits while steadily enhancing energy density. The period leading up to 2026 is widely seen as a crucial window for these batteries to establish a presence in niche markets and commence scaled commercialization.